Ergodic stationary distribution and practical application of a hybrid stochastic cholera transmission model with waning vaccine-induced immunity under nonlinear regime switching

Considering the effect of stochasticity including white noise and colored noise, this paper aims to study a hybrid stochastic cholera epidemic model with waning vaccine-induced immunity and nonlinear telegraph perturbations. First, we derive a critical value ${?}_0^C$ related to the basic reproduction number ${?}_0$ of the deterministic model. The key aim of this paper is to generalize the θ-stochastic criterion method proposed by the recent work (Han et al. in Chaos Solit Fract 140:110238, 2020) to eliminate nonlinear telegraph perturbations. Next, via constructing several θ-stochastic Lyapunov functions and using the generalized method, we further prove that the stochastic model have a unique ergodic stationary distribution under ${?}_0^C>1$. Results show that the prevention and control of cholera epidemic depend on low transmission rate and small telegraph perturbations. Finally, the corresponding numerical simulations are performed to illustrate our analytical results and a practical application on the Somalia cholera outbreak is shown at the end of this paper.     

An improved generalized predictive control algorithm based on the difference equation CARIMA model for the SISO system with known strong interference

ABSTRACT

The single input single output (SISO) system with known strong interference is widely used in various occasions. Due to its strong interference, the control accuracy is hard to guarantee. To solve this problem, an improved generalized predictive control (IGPC) algorithm is developed. The IGPC firstly builds the difference equation CARIMA (Controlled Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving-Average) model of the SISO system and then treats the system as a two input single output (TISO) system and calculates its predictive vector, then transforms it into a SISO system and uses the TISO system predictive vector to calculate the SISO system control increment. A new parameter called phase coefficient is added to inhibit the control lag. Simulations are performed to make the comparison among the traditional GPC, PID control, velocity synchronization control (VSC), fuzzy adaptive PID control (FAPID), model-based robust PID control (BPID) and the IGPC. Results show that IGPC has best performance compared to the others. Finally, experiments are developed which proved that the IGPC algorithm has a higher accuracy in the SISO system with known strong interference than that of VSC.